Recent polling has placed United Torah Judaism near 7–8 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5.8–6.7 percent of the national vote ahead of the October 27 election. Internal tensions within the party’s Agudat Yisrael component, particularly the Gur Hasidic community’s reported reluctance to mobilize over candidate-list placement, have introduced turnout uncertainty that keeps the 5–6 percent and 6–7 percent buckets nearly even in trader pricing. A surplus-vote agreement with Shas and ongoing campaign mobilization in key Haredi centers provide modest upward support, while leadership statements tying coalition participation to passage of yeshiva draft legislation underscore the party’s leverage without altering short-term vote-share expectations. These factional and mobilization factors continue to define the narrow range.