Recent polls place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, in a narrow band of roughly 7–8 seats on average, with individual surveys ranging from 7 to 10 ahead of the October 27 election. The party’s recent surplus-vote agreement with United Torah Judaism and Deri’s firm precondition that any coalition first enact legislation protecting yeshiva student exemptions have reinforced its position inside the Netanyahu-aligned bloc while limiting flexibility. These factors, combined with modest Haredi turnout variability and competition for religious voters, keep outcomes clustered between 6–7 and 8–9 seats in trader pricing. Late-campaign shifts in bloc totals or turnout could still widen the range before election day.