Recent polling averages project neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc nor the opposing Zionist “change” bloc reaching the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority after the October 27 election. Netanyahu-aligned parties average roughly 52–55 seats, while opposition lists led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad hover around 50–52, with Arab parties taking about 13 seats. Most parties in each camp have ruled out cross-bloc alliances or partnerships with Arab lists, leaving both sides short of the threshold needed to form a government. Only isolated outlier surveys show one bloc reaching 61, and recent campaign developments have produced no decisive shift. Traders therefore assign high probability to the outcome that no coalition secures a majority.