Iran faces heightened internal pressures amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, which began in February 2026 and included the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent coordinated attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan province in early October 2026 killed multiple security personnel and were linked to groups such as Jaish al-Adl, highlighting insurgent activity in peripheral regions. January 2026 protests triggered a severe crackdown with dozens of executions, while economic strain from sanctions and disrupted oil exports fuels discontent. Internal factional tensions, including hardliner accusations of unauthorized diplomacy by President Masoud Pezeshkian’s team and past “soft coup” claims during leadership transitions, add to uncertainty. The Assembly of Experts’ selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader and subsequent power consolidation efforts remain focal points for any shifts in regime stability.