Iran’s ruling system faces sustained internal pressures from January 2026 protests and subsequent Baloch militant attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan, including coordinated strikes on security forces in early October that killed multiple personnel. The regime has responded with accelerated executions of protesters, expanded treason charges, and intensified surveillance under new espionage laws enacted after U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders earlier in the year. Leadership has consolidated around Mojtaba Khamenei with IRGC backing, while civilian figures navigate factional tensions over negotiations and authority. Trader consensus reflected in related markets assigns low implied probability to a qualifying coup attempt by state or military factions before near-term deadlines, citing the security apparatus’s demonstrated capacity to suppress organized challenges amid ongoing economic strain and external threats.