Internal divisions within Iran's leadership, intensified by the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, have fueled trader focus on coup risks amid the ongoing conflict. Recent military appointments by interim leadership, including IRGC command shifts and efforts to fill war-related vacancies, reflect attempts to consolidate control under hardline factions while managing pragmatic elements around President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ongoing repression of protests, executions tied to earlier unrest, and clashes with armed groups in regions like Sistan-Baluchestan highlight security strains, yet the regime's institutional safeguards and factional negotiations have so far contained open challenges. Diplomatic messaging on Strait of Hormuz access and indirect U.S. contacts continue without resolution, keeping uncertainty around stability elevated through late 2026.