Iran's insistence that any full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains contingent on U.S. fulfillment of commitments under the June memorandum of understanding—such as sanctions relief and asset releases—continues to anchor trader expectations against an early lift of the blockade. Recent October 2026 talks with Oman have advanced toward a temporary commercial shipping corridor and mine-clearance framework, with both sides reporting near-final geographic coordinates and a joint statement, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly clarified that these arrangements do not equate to reopening the waterway or ending restrictions. Ongoing naval actions, attacks on vessels, and reduced traffic flows underscore the persistent blockade, while the bilateral deal focuses narrowly on route management between the coastal states. This sequencing supports the 71.5% "No" consensus, as the Oman framework can proceed without triggering a broader de-escalation tied to external conditions.