Rising energy prices driven by Middle East conflict have lifted UK CPI inflation expectations for September 2026, with Deutsche Bank forecasting 3.49% year-on-year and independent consensus pointing to around 3.4% for Q4. August CPI printed at 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July, as higher crude oil, refined products, and wholesale gas costs feed into motor fuels and the Ofgem energy price cap. The Bank of England’s latest projections anticipate further increases to near 3.75% by year-end, with limited pass-through to wages and services inflation so far. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 3.4-3.6% range ahead of the Office for National Statistics release on October 21, while acknowledging potential volatility from ongoing geopolitical developments.