India maintains a policy of responding to major terrorist attacks with targeted strikes, as demonstrated by Operation Sindoor in May 2025 following the Pahalgam attack. Recent intelligence reports of Pakistan activating infiltration launch pads along the Line of Control have prompted Indian forces to heighten vigilance, yet no large-scale provocation has occurred since the 2025 ceasefire. Both sides continue assertive rhetoric at the UN, with India rejecting nuclear blackmail and Pakistan emphasizing full-spectrum deterrence amid joint China-Pakistan military drills. Suspended water-sharing arrangements and absent high-level dialogue sustain underlying risks, but traders currently price a low probability of another Indian strike by year-end absent fresh escalation triggers.