Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a commanding lead in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election popular vote, with official National Election Office results showing 53.2% for Tisza versus 38.6% for Fidesz-KDNP—a 14.6% margin fitting the 12-15% bin—amid record 79% turnout that amplified anti-incumbency sentiment after 16 years of Viktor Orbán rule. Pre-election polls from Median and others accurately projected Tisza's supermajority path, fueled by Magyar's ex-Fidesz insider status, corruption exposés, economic discontent, and urban youth mobilization, flipping even Fidesz strongholds. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects 99%+ vote counts locking the outcome, with minimal risk from final overseas ballots or recounts shifting beyond this range absent major irregularities.