Cheng Chao-fang holds the leading position in the Hsinchu County magistrate race at 61.5% implied probability, ahead of KMT nominee Hsu Hsin-ying at 32.5%, with other registered candidates including independents and minor contenders priced near zero. The DPP recruited and nominated the Zhubei mayor in June after internal persuasion by party leadership, positioning him to leverage his local base in the county’s largest city and stronger support among college-educated voters. Hsu secured her nomination in March through a mixed primary system despite a contentious contest with Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien, who ultimately did not run independently. Recent polling shows mixed results with Cheng gaining in some surveys on governance messaging, while Hsu maintains broader geographic strength outside Zhubei. The November 28 election date and limited coordination between opposition parties after the collapse of local KMT-TPP talks in Zhubei continue to shape trader assessments of the two-candidate contest.