Incumbent Ann Kao holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Hsinchu City mayoral race due to her cleared legal record following a High Court acquittal on corruption charges, reinstatement in December 2025, and survival of a recall effort. Running as an independent after departing the Taiwan People’s Party, she benefits from incumbency and a divided opposition, with Democratic Progressive Party candidate Chuang Ching-cheng at 10% and KMT-aligned Ho Chih-yung at 2.7%. Recent campaign activity includes Chuang’s October press conference criticizing unfulfilled pledges on infrastructure and education while accusing Kao of claiming credit for prior projects, met by immediate rebuttals from her administration. The November 28 election features multiple registered candidates, but the absence of opposition consolidation has sustained trader consensus around Kao’s position ahead of the vote.