SpaceX has completed seven orbital launches so far in October 2026, including Crew-13, a Falcon Heavy national security mission, multiple Starlink batches, a Dragon cargo flight, and a classified payload, maintaining its typical high-cadence rhythm without major slips. With only three additional Falcon 9 missions currently manifested through late October—Bandwagon-5, another Starlink group, and one more rideshare—the manifest points to a monthly total well below 14. Trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability for fewer than 14 launches aligns with this steady but not accelerated pace, while slim odds on 14–16 reflect the possibility of one or two unscheduled Starlink or rideshare additions before month-end. No regulatory or technical disruptions have altered the near-term schedule.