SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 cadence, fueled by rapid booster reuse and frequent Starlink deployments, underpins trader consensus around 140-159 total launches for 2026. As of mid-October, the company has completed roughly 118 missions, with Starlink accounting for the majority alongside national security and crewed flights. Starship's first orbital insertion and satellite deployment in late September marks a key technical milestone that could add incremental flights, though its contribution remains limited by test-phase constraints. With approximately 10 weeks remaining and average weekly rates near two to three missions, the leading bin reflects realistic continuation of proven reusability and manifest density, tempered by potential schedule slips or range weather factors.