Republican House primaries in 2026 produced four incumbent defeats—Daniel Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, Andy Ogles, and Cory Mills—placing the cycle near historical norms for contested races despite elevated challenger activity. Trump endorsements accelerated losses for Massie and Crenshaw over policy disagreements, while Ogles and Mills fell amid spending, redistricting adjustments, and conduct allegations even with party backing. These outcomes, confirmed across primary results through early fall, underpin the strong market alignment with the 4-6 range. Remaining contests or disputes over withdrawals could push totals higher, though few undecided races remain.