**Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents failing to win renomination this cycle.** High-profile defeats of figures like Thomas Massie (KY-4) and Dan Crenshaw (TX-2) to Trump-backed challengers, plus Andy Ogles (TN-5) amid redistricting and local issues, have contributed to the total. Broader factors include mid-decade redistricting in key states, intraparty tensions over loyalty and spending, and a handful of competitive battleground primaries. With the primary season largely concluded by mid-October 2026 and roughly a dozen total House incumbent primary losses across parties reported, the outcome has settled in the lower range of recent cycles without escalating into a broader purge. Late surprises in any remaining contests or disputes over redistricting could still shift the final count.