Both major blocs in Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election poll short of the 61 seats required for a majority, with Netanyahu-aligned parties averaging around 51-53 seats and the Eisenkot-led opposition similarly positioned. This fragmentation, driven by small parties hovering near the 3.25% threshold and limited surplus-vote agreements, positions Arab lists as potential kingmakers while raising deadlock risks. Traders assign 64.5% implied probability to one election sufficing, reflecting incentives to avoid repeat voting costs and historical patterns where post-election negotiations sometimes bridge gaps despite initial shortfalls. A second election holds 30% probability if coalition talks stall beyond the 28-42 day formation window.