The 2-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.75% as of October 15, 2026, has eased from early-month levels above 4.80% amid shifting Fed rate expectations and a flight to safety. Recent September CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.7% and core at 2.6%, combined with soft nonfarm payrolls, has reinforced trader views that the FOMC is likely to hold the federal funds rate steady at its October 27-28 meeting while pricing in a possible December hike. This dynamic, alongside concerns over AI-driven equity weakness and elevated Treasury supply, has compressed near-term rate path expectations, supporting lower front-end yields. Key upcoming releases include October inflation prints and labor data that could further influence market-implied odds for the remainder of the month.