The 2-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.80% as of October 9, 2026, has climbed roughly 140 basis points from February lows amid the Federal Reserve’s shift toward tighter policy. The FOMC raised the federal funds target to 3.75–4.00% in September under Chair Kevin Warsh, citing inflation above the 2% goal for over five years and resilient growth; markets now price additional hikes beyond the median dot-plot projection. Sticky core CPI readings, elevated real-rate expectations, and a widening term premium—driven by fiscal deficits and AI-related capital demand—have lifted front-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release on October 14, the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, and third-quarter GDP on October 29, which will shape expectations for further policy tightening or any potential pause before year-end.