Democrats secured a substantial House majority in the 2026 midterms, shifting Republicans into the minority for the 120th Congress and prompting an internal GOP leadership contest. Speaker Mike Johnson declined to seek the minority leader role, clearing the way for formal bids by Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. Jordan’s stronger positioning reflects conference preference for a candidate emphasizing aggressive oversight and distance from recent leadership after significant seat losses. Scalise, as current majority leader, trails amid debate over continuity versus change. Other Republicans register lower probabilities, while Democratic figures such as Hakeem Jeffries sit near negligible levels given their party’s majority status. The Republican conference vote, expected shortly after candidate declarations, will determine the outcome.