**Trader consensus has converged on an 11°C daily maximum for Moscow on October 13, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from official forecasts and real-time observations.** Russian Hydrometeorological Center guidance and supporting model runs projected a daytime peak of 11–13°C under northwest flow following the prior day’s anomalous warmth, with hourly data showing temperatures cresting near 11°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate northerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-October (average high ~9–10°C) while incorporating the modest warm anomaly persisting into the period. The 100% market-implied probability for the 11°C outcome indicates traders view resolution criteria—typically based on official station maxima—as effectively settled, with minimal scope for revision. Only an unanticipated late surge or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, scenarios considered highly improbable given model agreement and observed trends through the afternoon and evening.