Recent official forecasts for Chengdu on October 15, 2026, show highs centered on 23–25°C under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and possible drizzle, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 24°C (35% implied probability) and 25°C (29%). Autumn subsidence and retreating monsoon moisture limit daytime heating while increasing cloud cover reduces solar insolation, keeping peaks below recent 27°C readings. Minor differences between 23°C and 26°C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any showers, boundary-layer mixing, and model spread in regional guidance. Traders weigh these variables against historical October averages near 22°C, with final readings from local stations resolving the market.