**Forecast consensus points to a high near 28°C in Chengdu on October 13, 2026, driving the market's 39% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple regional models show daytime maxima of 26–28°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with light winds and minimal precipitation risk during peak heating hours. Slight differences among runs—primarily in afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture within the Sichuan Basin—account for the tight spread between 27°C (30%) and 29°C (18%). October climatology favors highs around 23–25°C, but recent clear conditions have supported a modest warm bias. Updated model guidance and any late-day convective development remain the key variables that could shift the final observed maximum.