Official NWS forecasts and supporting model guidance position a high near 91°F as the most likely outcome for Austin on October 15, with mostly sunny skies, light southeast winds, and only modest afternoon heating expected. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 90–91°F and 92–93°F bins. A subtropical ridge continues to support above-normal warmth, yet an approaching cold front will shift winds northerly and drop temperatures sharply on Friday, capping Thursday’s peak. Recent model runs show tight consensus around the low 90s, with limited upside from stronger insolation or downside from increased cloud cover before the front arrives.