A very strong El Niño event, with NOAA assigning over 83% odds of remaining strong-to-very strong through January–March 2027 and an 83% chance it exceeds prior records for October–December, is the dominant driver elevating baseline sea levels off San Diego. Kelvin waves and expanded warm-water volume have already lifted observed water levels 6–7 inches above 2025 values at Southern California tide gauges, layering atop long-term climate-driven rise and an ongoing marine heat wave. These conditions raise the likelihood of record or near-record maxima when they coincide with astronomical king tides peaking near Thanksgiving, Christmas, and late January, plus any winter storm surges. NOAA’s San Diego tide gauge (9410170) provides the official hourly observations for market resolution, with monthly high-water summaries and updated ENSO outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center serving as key near-term data releases that could shift trader assessments of peak winter levels.