Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported projectile strikes on or near Hengam Island in July 2026 and related incidents into September, have raised questions about Iranian island defenses without producing any verified shift in administration. Iran has reinforced positions across its southern Gulf islands with additional troops, mines, and naval assets while conducting coastal defense drills and maintaining oversight of shipping lanes. Tehran continues to assert sovereignty over Hengam and nearby territories such as Qeshm and Larak, with no confirmed amphibious operations, negotiated transfers, or occupation by external forces. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing near-term changes in control at low probabilities amid persistent Iranian military presence and the high threshold for resolution.