Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green seeks a second term against Republican challenger Gary Cordery in the November 3 general election. Hawaii’s long-standing Democratic dominance, combined with Green’s strong primary performance (over 88% of the vote) and third-highest national approval rating among governors, anchors trader expectations for a substantial Democratic margin. Forecasts from multiple outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting roughly a 30-point edge based on historical voting patterns and fundamentals. Limited recent polling and a low-profile Republican campaign keep the outcome range concentrated between 25-45 points. Late developments such as turnout shifts or campaign events could narrow or widen the final spread within that band.