**Beatriz Mojica Morga holds an 88% implied probability as the likely winner of Guerrero’s 2027 gubernatorial election.** In mid-September 2026, Morena designated the senator with license as state coordinator of the Defense of the Transformation after she topped internal surveys against more than a dozen rivals, including Esthela Damián Peralta and Abelina López Rodríguez. Subsequent polling shows her coalition (Morena-PT-PVEM) commanding roughly 46-52% support statewide, placing Mojica 25-30 points ahead of PRI frontrunner Manuel Añorve Baños and other opposition figures. The party’s structural advantage in the state, combined with Mojica’s decisive internal victory and favorable favorability ratings, underpins trader consensus that the coalition nominee will prevail in the June 2027 contest. No major developments have altered this positioning since late September.
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