Beatriz Mojica Morga holds an 88% implied probability in the Guerrero gubernatorial market because Morena designated her in September 2026 as state coordinator of the Committees for the Defense of the Transformation after she topped internal party surveys with the highest scores across recognition, favorability, and voting intention metrics. Recent polling shows her leading the field by roughly 30 points over the nearest challenger, with Morena-PT-PVEM alliance support near 50%. The June 2027 election remains more than eight months away, leaving room for shifts from opposition consolidation or late developments, but her position as the ruling coalition’s presumptive nominee and the party’s established strength in the state anchor current trader pricing.