Recent Aegean airspace violations by Turkish drones and manned aircraft, including armed F-16 interceptions and simulated engagements near Kastellorizo in early October 2026, have sustained low-level military posturing between the NATO allies. Greek forces have conducted repeated scrambles in response to infringements of the Athens FIR and claimed national airspace, while overlapping NOTAMs for military exercises and Turkish naval deployments near planned Great Sea Interconnector surveys have added friction over maritime boundaries and the “Blue Homeland” doctrine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Athens visit reinforced alliance commitments, with explicit statements that Washington would not permit escalation. Both governments have signaled interest in exploratory maritime talks, and Greek officials have characterized the situation as manageable fluctuations rather than imminent conflict. These patterns of calibrated signaling amid longstanding disputes over islands, continental shelves, and energy infrastructure continue to shape trader assessments of near-term engagement risks.