Recent spikes in Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean tensions stem primarily from overlapping maritime jurisdiction claims and frequent Turkish aircraft and drone incursions into Greek-claimed airspace and the Athens FIR. In mid-October 2026, Turkey issued counter-NAVTEX notices challenging Greek authority for the multinational Eunomia exercise (involving live-fire phases through October 22) and areas tied to Great Sea Interconnector cable surveys, asserting its continental shelf rights under the "Blue Homeland" doctrine. Greek forces have intercepted armed Turkish F-16s and UAVs in multiple October incidents, including dogfight-style engagements near Kastellorizo, while both sides schedule rival military activities. Diplomatic channels remain active, with U.S. officials emphasizing that NATO allies will not permit direct conflict, and reports of exploratory talks on maritime delimitation. These patterns of assertive signaling without kinetic escalation shape trader assessments of near-term engagement risk.