**Graham Platner, the former Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine, faced public allegations of sexual assault and related misconduct from former partners in June and July 2026, leading to the collapse of his campaign and his withdrawal on July 10.** Hancock County District Attorney Bob Granger and Maine State Police confirmed no formal criminal complaint had been filed and no active investigation was underway as of early August, with officials noting that victims frequently decline to pursue charges. The market on charges by August 31 reflected this procedural reality, the brief remaining window, and the absence of new enforcement actions or indictments in federal or state jurisdictions. Trader consensus priced in a low likelihood of formal charging decisions within the deadline absent a filed complaint or rapid escalation. No scheduled court proceedings, additional public complaints, or agency announcements altered that assessment before resolution.