Resilient U.S. economic momentum, including Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates near 3.6% annualized for Q3 2026 and solid consumer spending plus AI-driven business investment, underpins the near-even split between the 2.0–2.5% and above-2.5% bins for full-year GDP growth. Official projections from the IMF and FOMC September Summary of Economic Projections both center on 2.3%, while Q2 growth registered 2.2% annualized after a 2.5% Q1 reading. Elevated inflation pressures, recent Fed rate hikes to the 3.75–4% range, and energy-price risks from geopolitical tensions create offsetting downside forces that prevent a clearer consensus. Q3 GDP data and the December FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.