Germany’s governing CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces sustained pressure following sharp CDU losses in September 2026 state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin, where the party fell below the threshold in one case and trailed the Left in another amid AfD gains. Merz’s personal approval has remained near record lows, with recent polls showing satisfaction around 10-28 percent, though one mid-October survey indicated a modest rebound. Coalition strains intensified after Labor Minister Bärbel Bas resigned in mid-October, highlighting disputes over pension and welfare reforms that the government aims to advance by year-end or spring 2027. Merz has publicly ruled out stepping down and emphasized completing the reform agenda, while the absence of an immediate no-confidence mechanism or unified internal challenge has so far limited turnover prospects despite speculation over potential successors. Upcoming EU summits and state elections in 2027 could further test coalition stability.