Ashley Moody holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the Miami-Dade County outcome in Florida’s 2026 U.S. Senate special election, reflecting her strong Republican primary performance, substantial fundraising lead, and consistent statewide polling advantage over Angie Nixon. Recent surveys show Moody ahead overall by margins of 2 to 10 points, with support among Hispanic voters and in key regions helping offset Nixon’s strength in urban Democratic areas. Nixon’s primary upset victory and progressive platform have energized her base but have not narrowed the gap enough in Miami-Dade-specific samples to shift the market consensus. With early voting underway and the November 3 general election approaching, traders appear to weigh Moody’s incumbency and party registration edge more heavily than localized Democratic turnout potential.