Flávio Bolsonaro departed Brazil in late October 2026 shortly after losing the presidential runoff to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, traveling via Argentina and Ecuador before arriving in Miami with his family despite a Supreme Federal Court order to surrender his passports amid ongoing money-laundering and corruption investigations. He has remained in the United States in self-imposed exile, where he has positioned himself as opposition leader and appeared at a Mar-a-Lago event in early November. His Senate term ends early in 2027, removing parliamentary immunity and exposing him to potential prosecution. Traders assess return timelines against possible shifts in Brazilian judicial proceedings, bilateral relations with the Trump administration, or domestic political developments that could alter legal risks or incentives for reentry.