**In Georgia’s 13th congressional district special election, triggered by the April 2026 death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott, traders assign a 75.1% implied probability to an outright first-round winner on the July 28 ballot.** The heavily Democratic Atlanta-area seat features a crowded field dominated by Democrats Marcye Scott, who benefits from family name recognition as the late representative’s daughter, and Everton Blair, a former Gwinnett County school board chair. A smaller Republican presence and the absence of a single dominant frontrunner create the risk of vote fragmentation below 50%, requiring a runoff under Georgia rules. Recent primary dynamics in the parallel full-term race, where Jasmine Clark secured a clear majority, and limited polling on the special contest inform the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Upcoming certification and any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could still alter the outcome before the August runoff date.