Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, holds a dominant position in the race following her 49.93% share in the October 4 first round, just short of an outright win. She faces PT candidate Leandro Grass in the October 25 runoff after Grass secured 34.47%. Recent Datafolha polling shows Leão ahead by 18 points in the head-to-head, supported by a broad coalition that includes Republicanos, MDB, PL, and União parties, plus efforts to consolidate right-leaning votes from eliminated candidates. Grass draws primarily from PT and left-leaning bases concentrated in central Brasília zones. Trader consensus reflects Leão’s incumbency, first-round momentum, and polling edge, though low turnout or late shifts in voter mobilization could still influence the final tally.