**Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, holds a consistent double-digit lead in second-round polling ahead of the October 25 runoff against Leandro Grass (PT).** Recent surveys from Datafolha, Igape, and Quaest show her with 53–55% of total voter intentions and 60–61% of valid votes, producing projected margins of roughly 18–21 points. She advanced from the first round with 49.93% of valid votes to Grass’s 34.47%, and most undecided or third-candidate voters appear to be consolidating behind her. Trader pricing on margin buckets reflects this polling consensus and the absence of major late developments that would narrow the gap, while assigning negligible probability to a Grass victory. The race remains subject to turnout patterns and any final-week shifts in voter preference.