Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, enters the October 25 runoff holding a consistent polling lead of 15–20 points over Leandro Grass (PT) following her near-miss first-round finish at 49.93% to Grass’s 34.47%. Recent surveys, including Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, show her consolidating support among voters from eliminated candidates such as Paula Belmonte (PSDB), whose roughly 140,000 ballots are actively courted by both camps amid national right-left polarization. Trader pricing on margin bands reflects uncertainty around turnout, late shifts among undecided or blank voters, and campaign intensity in the final ten days, while Grass’s path to narrowing the gap hinges on PT mobilization and any erosion of Celina’s incumbency advantage.