Trader consensus around a 95 percent probability against a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026 reflects the narrow remaining legislative calendar, midterm elections in November, and polling data showing bipartisan support in battleground areas for raising rates on high earners rather than broad reductions. Proposals for targeted relief, such as expanded home-sale exclusions or inflation indexing, have surfaced in committee discussions and from administration figures but face procedural hurdles in the House Ways and Means Committee and limited momentum ahead of the lame-duck period. With only weeks left before year-end and competing fiscal priorities including spending measures and debt-limit considerations, enactment of a general rate cut appears unlikely. Late-session negotiations or specific carve-outs tied to housing policy could still shift the outcome if bipartisan agreement emerges quickly after the elections.