With only weeks remaining before the end of 2026 and midterm elections set for November, Congress has not advanced legislation to reduce federal long-term capital gains rates below the current 0/15/20 percent structure established under prior law and extended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Recent tax guidance has addressed implementation details such as opportunity zones and farmland installment elections but left top rates unchanged, while proposals to index gains for inflation or expand the home-sale exclusion remain in committee without floor votes. Traders assign a 95.5 percent probability to no cut occurring because the short remaining calendar, competing lame-duck priorities, and lack of bipartisan momentum make enactment before year-end highly improbable. A surprise reconciliation package or executive action could still shift the outcome, though both face significant procedural and political hurdles.