Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges in October 2026, including strikes on military assets near Kharg Island, have intensified scrutiny of control over the listed Persian Gulf islands. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with tanker-tracking data showing loadings near zero in September amid a U.S. blockade that has stranded dozens of vessels. Brent crude has traded near $97 per barrel on supply-risk premiums, while Iran maintains operational continuity at terminals and asserts full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on the low near-term likelihood of territorial change, driven by sustained Iranian defensive posture and the absence of confirmed seizure or handover. Key upcoming variables include navigation talks and any further sanctions or military developments affecting energy flows.