The Brazilian presidential runoff on October 25, where Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow first-round lead over incumbent Lula, anchors trader pricing for the leading Bolsonaro-Eizenkot-Dems combination at 40.5 percent. Israeli polls two weeks before the October 27 vote show Gadi Eizenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, yet neither bloc reaches a Knesset majority amid small-party threshold risks and Bennett’s separate showing. US Senate control remains a coin flip, with Democrats projected to net seats in toss-ups including Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Texas. These simultaneous uncertainties across independent electoral systems keep multiple three-way alignments within a tight range, as late shifts in turnout, coalition negotiations, or final vote margins in any contest could reorder the probabilities.