**Sainz holds a narrow edge in the late-2026 battle to finish ahead of Alonso, reflected in the 62% implied probability for Yes.** Both veterans sit tied on 7 points after 17 races, with Sainz 18th and Alonso 17th in the standings (Esteban Ocon ahead on countback). Sainz drives for Williams, which has scored 12 constructor points, while Alonso’s Aston Martin has just 7. Sainz posted three early-season ninth-place finishes plus a tenth in Azerbaijan, showing stronger qualifying pace and racecraft on several weekends despite multiple DNFs. Alonso’s points came from a tenth in Monaco, ninth in the Netherlands, and an eighth in Malaysia, but he has suffered more retirements and less consistent top-15 pace. With six races remaining, the outcome hinges on which midfield car extracts more from the remaining calendar. Williams upgrades and Sainz’s recent form have given traders a modest preference for the younger Spaniard to outscore Alonso over the final stretch, though both teams remain near the back and results stay highly variable.