The high altitude of the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez creates thin air that reduces power unit output, aerodynamic grip, and cooling efficiency, forcing teams to balance large rear wings with active aero elements under the 2026 regulations. This setup uncertainty, combined with new electric boost modes and the absence of traditional DRS, has left multiple squads—led by Mercedes with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton pairing, and McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri—closely matched in pre-event testing form. Max Verstappen’s historical strength at the circuit adds further parity, while midfield runners like Pierre Gasly, Fernando Alonso, and Sergio Pérez sit further back due to power deficits and setup compromises. With FP2 focused on qualifying simulations on soft tires, the tight clustering around 49.5% implied probabilities reflects traders viewing the session as highly sensitive to final adjustments and track evolution rather than any single driver holding a decisive edge.