Interlagos's history of frequent safety car deployments, driven by its elevation changes, tight corners, and frequent rain that creates slippery conditions, balances the 50% implied probability for the 2026 São Paulo Grand Prix. Recent wet-weather incidents, including multi-car crashes during restarts in prior events, highlight how variable grip and visibility often trigger deployments. The 2026 regulatory overhaul—producing lighter cars with reduced downforce and new power units—adds uncertainty around early-season reliability and handling on this demanding layout. Dry forecasts or clean practice sessions could favor a no-safety-car outcome, while any precipitation or opening-lap chaos would shift sentiment toward yes. Trader pricing reflects these competing track-specific and regulatory variables.