US federal charges against Raúl Castro, unsealed in May 2026 over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown, established the legal foundation for potential custody through an arrest warrant, yet Cuba maintains no extradition treaty and the 95-year-old former leader remains on the island. Recent developments include health rumors and limited public appearances through September 2026, a CIA director visit to Havana in October, and stalled US-Cuba communications over demands such as leadership changes in Havana amid ongoing sanctions and energy shortages. These structural and diplomatic obstacles continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term transfer to US jurisdiction.