US federal prosecutors indicted Raúl Castro in May 2026 on charges including murder, conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, and aircraft destruction tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown, issuing an arrest warrant. The 95-year-old former Cuban leader has remained in Cuba, issuing occasional statements via letters while maintaining a low public profile amid ongoing U.S. sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Havana. No extradition agreement exists, and Cuban officials have rejected the charges as politically motivated without altering his status. Recent U.S.-Cuba contacts have involved Castro family members but produced no custody developments. Trader consensus on near-term U.S. custody therefore reflects the absence of enforcement pathways short of extraordinary measures, with resolution hinging on verifiable transfer to U.S. authorities before any market deadline.