Recent S&P Global PMI readings, with the eurozone composite reaching a 41-month high of 53.1 in September, signal the strongest private-sector expansion in nearly three-and-a-half years and underpin the 51.5% market-implied probability for 0.8-1.1% year-over-year GDP growth in Q3 2026. This momentum, driven by services and manufacturing rebounds across Germany, Italy, and Spain, aligns with nowcasts projecting roughly 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion despite France’s estimated 0.1% q/q print and elevated energy costs. The 27.5% odds on 1.2-1.5% reflect Q2’s 1.2% y/y baseline and resilient employment trends, while lower brackets remain discounted ahead of Eurostat’s October 30 flash release.